CME Group

AT A GLANCE Despite not meeting the technical definition of a recession, a June YouGov poll showed that 58% of Americans felt the economy was already in one Neither of the two fixed-income-based-indicators of future economic activity – the yield curve and credit spreads – point to a...

Analyses of gold and silver often tend to focus on demand-side drivers, with relatively minor attention given to the influence of supply. For example, both metals display negative correlations to changes in expectations for U.S. short-term interest rates and the U.S. dollar (Figures 1 and 2). While...

The labor market remains strong despite the slowing pace of economic expansion. Could a recession change this dynamic? Watch the full video on the CME website here Scan the above QR code for more expert analysis of market events and trends driving opportunities today! This post contains...

It’s been five years since we published the first article on the “weirdest chart ever,” which shows the cyclical relationship between implied volatility on equity index options (represented by the VIX index) and the yield curve. Now, Anne Lundgaard Hansen of the Federal Reserve...

On June 10, the U.S. Consumer Price Index printed an alarming 8.6% and sent interest rate futures markets into a chaotic repricing of Federal Reserve expectations. At that time, Fed Fund futures had been pricing in 50-basis point rate hikes at each of the next two Fed meetings. But in the...

The euro (EUR) recently fell to its lowest level versus the U.S. dollar (USD) since 2002 after breaching a support level that has held up since 2015. (Figure 1). As EURUSD closed in on parity, the cost of options on the currency pair spiked to their highest level since March 2020 (Figure 2). ...

AT A GLANCE Between 2009 and 2012, the euro area experienced a sovereign debt crisis The European Central Bank is ending its bond-buying program and prepping to raise rates Is the eurozone headed for another debt crisis? Judging from the overall level of debt in Europe, the answer seems to be...

AT A GLANCE Early signs point to both goods demand and manufacturing activity beginning to wane The Federal Reserve has made it clear that their goal is to reduce the demand imbalance through short-end rate hikes and quantitative tightening on the long end On June 10, the U.S. Consumer Price...

CME Group Fertilizer Swaps and Futures   Scan the above QR code for more expert analysis of market events and trends driving opportunities today!  This post contains sponsored advertising content. This content is for informational purposes only and not intended to be investing...

There has been no debt crisis in Europe for over a decade, but could impending rate hikes change that? Watch the full discussion on the CME website here Scan the above QR code for more expert analysis of market events and trends driving opportunities today! This post contains sponsored...

USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil futures volume and open interest In June 2022, CME Crude Palm Oil volume totaled 31,653 lots (791,325 metric tons) and the end-of-month open interest was 48,318 lots (1,207,950 metric tons). Volume during the first three contract months was 12,238, which was about 39%...

AT-A-GLANCE The word “recession” is popping up in the news media, polling data and internet searches with increasing frequency Fixed income investors don’t appear to see a downturn on the immediate horizon Neither the yield curve nor credit spreads point to a near-term recession...

Job growth over the long term could be slowed by an almost stagnant working-age population. Watch the full discussion on the CME website here Scan the above QR code for more expert analysis of market events and trends driving opportunities today! This post contains sponsored advertising content....

AT A GLANCE U.S. employers added 390,000 jobs in May, with the unemployment rate holding at 3.6% A strong labor market is contributing to inflationary pressures After a rapid rebound in U.S. jobs, it is only natural that job growth would slow down. However, this time around, a deceleration in...

AT-A-GLANCE Core inflation soared in May, challenging the prospects for a soft landing With aggressive rate hikes, inflation is expected to slow as consumer demand is pulled down, but the cost of credit and capital investment is rising In the fall of 2021, against the backdrop of persistent...