Satoshi Nakamoto Likely To Move Their Bitcoin In 2026? Here's What The Biggest Prediction Markets Are Saying

Satoshi Nakamoto's massive Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) stash has long been dormant, and prediction markets suggest that the status quo will hold through 2026

Punters Bet Dormancy To Continue

Odds that Bitcoin’s mysterious creator moves their BTC at any time this year stood at only 9% on Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based Polymarket. Kalshi bettors weren't far off, assigning an 8% probability to the outcome.

Over $2.6 million has been wagered on the outcome on Polymarket. The market will resolve to “Yes” on-chain analytics firm Arkham verifies an "Outflow" or "Swaps" transaction from any wallet linked with Nakamoto.

The Richest Crypto Holder

Nakamoto is estimated to hold around 1.1 million BTC, worth approximately $85.47 billion at current market prices, making them the world's richest cryptocurrency holder.

If ranked on Forbes’ Real-Time Billionaires list, they would be ranked 24th, above Julia Koch and Indian corporate titan Gautam Adani.

Note that Nakamoto's real identity remains a mystery and they could be a single person, a collective or something else entirely.

One-Way Traffic

While there have been no outgoing transactions, Nakamoto-associated wallets have received small amounts in Bitcoin from time to time.

Earlier in February, 2.5 BTC, worth over $174,405 at the time, landed up in the "Genesis” wallet, i.e., the address that mined the first block on the Bitcoin blockchain.

About two years ago, someone sent 26.917 BTC, worth more than $1 million, to the wallet.

Price Action: At the time of writing, BTC was exchanging hands at $77,941.82, up 2.83% in the last 24 hours, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

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